Analysis: Election to test Missouri GOP’s House supermajority

Next Tuesday’s election could showcase whether the supermajority Republicans enjoy in the Missouri House is wave-proof.

After the House GOP shot way past the 109-member supermajority threshold in 2014, Missouri Republicans may be in their strongest legislative position ever in the General Assembly’s lower chamber. And since Republicans represent some Democratic-leaning seats, it stands to reason that the party will face a challenge this year to retain the status quo – especially if GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump underperforms in Missouri.

But even though Democratic turnout will likely be much higher than it was in 2014, Republicans may not lose ground.

The House GOP has more money and organizational prowess than the Democratic superminority. And Republicans have shown that they can withstand bad election cycles. When Barack Obama came within a handful of votes of winning Missouri in 2008, the House GOP only lost a few seats. The party actually gained seats in 2012 – a year in which Todd Akin’s disastrous Senate campaign wrecked numerous Republican campaigns.

While Trump has been faring poorly in traditionally Republican states like Georgia, Arizona and Utah, there’s not much evidence yet that he’s slated to do badly in Missouri. That’s one of the reasons House GOP leaders are optimistic.

And if conditions are favorable enough, it’s not out of the question that the GOP could increase its already big majority with gains in St. Louis County and Springfield.

Read more: St. Louis Public Radio

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